Kalshi vs Novig: The Prediction Market Showdown of 2026

Prediction markets have moved from a niche corner of finance into the mainstream of American sports and news culture. Two names now sit at the center of that shift for many traders.

Kalshi is the established heavyweight, with a broad menu of event contracts and a multibillion-dollar valuation. Novig is the sports-first challenger that won federal approval in 2026 and is growing fast.

The Kalshi vs Novig debate matters because the two platforms share a regulator but not a philosophy. One wants to be an exchange for nearly every real-world question. The other wants to be the best place to trade sports.

This comparison walks through how each platform works, where they differ, where they overlap, and which one makes more sense for different kinds of traders.

What is the Main Difference Between Kalshi and Novig?

The main difference between Kalshi and Novig is that Kalshi is a broad, multi-category prediction exchange covering economics, politics, weather, culture, crypto and sports, and it charges trading fees on most contracts. Novig is a sports-only, peer-to-peer prediction market built around a no-vig, commission-free experience for retail traders, and it earns from institutional participants instead. In short, Kalshi sells breadth and scale, while Novig sells sports focus and lower trading costs.

What is Kalshi and What is Novig?

Both platforms let users buy and sell contracts tied to the outcome of real-world events. Each contract typically settles at $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not, so prices act like live probabilities.

What separates them is scope, history and business model.

What is Kalshi?

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a Designated Contract Market. It was founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara.

The platform lists event contracts across economics, interest rates, inflation, elections, weather, entertainment, crypto and sports. A 2024 court win broadened the contract types it could offer, which opened the door to election and sports markets (Fortune).

Kalshi has since become the volume leader in U.S. prediction markets. It raised $1 billion in May 2026 at a $22 billion valuation, and its annualized revenue reportedly passed $2 billion by mid-2026 (Let’s Data Science).

Sports now drive most of its activity. That has also drawn lawsuits and cease-and-desist actions from several states that view its sports contracts as unlicensed betting (Decrypt).

What is Novig?

Novig is a sports-only prediction market based in New York. Jacob Fortinsky and Kelechi Ukah started it in 2021 while at Harvard, and it later went through Y Combinator (Fortune).

The name is a play on “no vig,” the commission sportsbooks build into their odds. Novig began as a Colorado sportsbook, shifted to a sweepstakes model, and then pursued federal approval.

The CFTC designated Novig as a Designated Contract Market in June 2026 (PR Newswire via TPI). Its federally regulated sports market launched on August 4, 2026.

Novig is now live in 47 states, with Arizona, Michigan and Nevada excluded, and recently raised money at a $2 billion valuation (Northeast Times). Retail trading is commission-free; the platform charges institutional participants instead.

Key Differences Between Kalshi and Novig

1. Market coverage: Kalshi lists contracts on economics, politics, weather, culture, crypto and sports. Novig focuses only on sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, soccer, UFC, tennis, golf and motorsports.
2. Fee model: Kalshi charges a trading fee on most contracts, which rises as prices approach 50 cents. Novig is commission-free for retail traders and earns from institutional participants instead.
3. Regulatory history: Kalshi has operated as a CFTC-designated exchange for years and fought the legal battles that opened up election and sports contracts. Novig only received its CFTC designation in June 2026 after earlier sportsbook and sweepstakes phases.
4. Scale and liquidity: Kalshi is the volume leader, with annualized trading volume reported near $178 billion in 2026. Novig is growing quickly but recorded roughly $1.14 billion in notional volume in its first weeks as a regulated market.
5. State availability: Kalshi reports availability in all 50 states, though its sports markets face litigation in several. Novig is live in 47 states and excludes Arizona, Michigan and Nevada.
6. Product design: Kalshi is built like a financial exchange that happens to carry sports. Novig is designed like a modern sportsbook app, with a layout and flow aimed at sports fans rather than macro traders.
7. Distribution partners: Kalshi markets are also reachable through brokerages such as Robinhood and Webull. Novig relies mainly on its own app and on sports marketing, such as its partnership with the New York Mets.

Key Similarities Between Kalshi and Novig

1. Federal oversight: Both operate as CFTC-designated contract markets. That gives each a single national framework instead of a state-by-state gambling license model.
2. Event contract structure: Both list binary contracts priced between $0 and $1. A price of 60 cents roughly signals a 60% implied probability.
3. Peer-to-peer trading: Neither platform acts as a traditional house setting odds against users. Traders buy from and sell to other participants, including market makers.
4. Exit before settlement: On both platforms, users can sell a position before an event ends. That lets traders lock in gains or cut losses as prices move.
5. Sports as the growth engine: Sports drive most of Kalshi’s volume and all of Novig’s. Both are competing for the same football, basketball and baseball audience.
6. Shared legal exposure: Both face the same unresolved question of whether states can regulate sports event contracts. A major court ruling would likely affect both platforms at once.
7. Mobile-first experience: Both offer polished iOS and Android apps alongside web access. Each targets everyday users rather than only professional traders.

Features of Kalshi vs Features of Novig

1. Market categories: Kalshi covers economics, politics, finance, crypto, weather, culture and sports. Novig covers sports only, across major U.S. leagues and international events.
2. Pricing and fees: Kalshi applies a variable per-contract fee, highest near 50-cent prices. Novig charges retail traders no commission and collects fees from institutions.
3. Regulatory status: Kalshi has long held CFTC Designated Contract Market status. Novig gained the same status in June 2026.
4. Availability: Kalshi reports access in all 50 states. Novig is live in 47 states, excluding Arizona, Michigan and Nevada.
5. Access channels: Kalshi runs its own web and mobile apps and also appears inside partner brokerages. Novig runs its own web and mobile apps.
6. Order types and trading tools: Both support limit-style orders and selling before settlement. Kalshi adds a wider set of advanced products, including multi-event combinations and newer derivatives such as perpetual futures.
7. Liquidity profile: Kalshi works with large market makers and carries the deepest books in U.S. prediction markets. Novig’s books are thinner but growing quickly.
8. Brand and partnerships: Kalshi positions itself as a financial exchange for real-world events. Novig builds its brand around sports, including a Mets partnership and athlete-led marketing.

Kalshi vs Novig Comparison Table

Final verdict

Kalshi is the winner of this comparison.

It offers far more markets, deeper liquidity, broader state access and a longer regulated track record. For most traders, that combination outweighs Novig’s fee advantage.

Novig is a strong option for sports-only users who trade often and care most about costs. But as an all-around prediction market account, Kalshi does more and does it at greater scale.

Pros of Kalshi Over Novig

1. Far wider market selection: Traders can take positions on Fed decisions, CPI prints, elections, box office results and weather. Novig offers none of these non-sports categories.
2. Deeper liquidity: Kalshi’s much larger volume usually means tighter spreads and easier fills on big orders. Large positions are less likely to move the price.
3. Longer operating track record: Kalshi has run a regulated exchange for years and has handled peak events like the Super Bowl and presidential elections. Novig’s regulated market is only a few months old.
4. Hedging use cases: Businesses and individuals can use Kalshi contracts to offset real-world risks, such as rate changes or weather. A sports-only venue cannot serve that purpose.
5. Brokerage access: Kalshi contracts are available through partners like Robinhood and Webull. Users can trade without opening a separate account in some cases.
6. Broader state reach: Kalshi is accessible in all 50 states for most of its markets. Residents of Arizona, Michigan and Nevada currently cannot use Novig.
7. Strong financial backing: Kalshi’s $22 billion valuation and backers such as Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz and Coatue give it deep resources. That supports product investment and long legal fights.

Cons of Kalshi Compared to Novig

1. Trading fees add up: Kalshi’s per-contract fees eat into returns, especially for frequent traders. Novig’s commission-free retail model is cheaper for the same activity.
2. Less sports-specific design: Kalshi’s interface serves many categories at once. Sports fans may find Novig’s dedicated layout faster to navigate on game day.
3. Heavier regulatory spotlight: As the market leader, Kalshi is the main target of state lawsuits, including actions from Massachusetts and Kentucky. Some of its sports markets have been blocked in certain jurisdictions.
4. Extra costs through brokers: Trading Kalshi markets through a third-party broker can add a further layer of fees. Novig users trade directly in one app.
5. Crowded market list: With thousands of contracts across topics, finding a specific game market can take more clicks. Novig keeps its catalog narrow by design.
6. Peak-traffic strain: Kalshi reportedly had deposit delays during heavy Super Bowl traffic in 2026. High demand can test its infrastructure at the worst moments.

Pros of Novig Over Kalshi

1. No commission for retail traders: Novig does not charge everyday users a trading fee. Every cent of a winning position stays with the trader.
2. Built for sports fans: The entire product revolves around games, leagues and players. Navigation, alerts and market layout mirror what sports bettors already expect.
3. Potentially better pricing: Without a vig and with peer-to-peer matching, prices can sit closer to fair value. That can matter a lot over hundreds of trades.
4. Clean, focused catalog: Users never scroll past inflation or election contracts to find tonight’s game. The narrower menu keeps decision-making quick.
5. Higher reported share of profitable users: Novig’s cofounder has claimed about 20% of its bettors are likely profitable, which he says is above other platforms. The figure is company-reported, so treat it with caution.
6. Sports partnerships: Novig became the exclusive official prediction market partner of the New York Mets in 2026. These ties deepen its sports identity and fan perks.
7. Fast growth momentum: Novig ranked sixth among volume-reporting operators within weeks of its August launch. Its rapid rise suggests strong demand from sports-focused traders.
8. Clear long-term focus: Novig’s leadership has openly said sports is the whole business. Users get a roadmap aimed squarely at their interests.

Cons of Novig Compared to Kalshi

1. Sports only: Anyone interested in economics, politics or culture contracts must look elsewhere. Novig cannot serve as an all-in-one prediction account.
2. Thinner liquidity: Novig’s volume is a small fraction of Kalshi’s. Less popular games and props may have wider spreads or partial fills.
3. Short regulated history: The federally regulated product has only existed since August 2026. Its systems have not yet been tested across several full seasons.
4. Excluded states: Residents of Arizona, Michigan and Nevada cannot currently trade on Novig. Kalshi does not carry the same gaps.
5. Trading against sharp money: Because institutions pay the fees, a large share of counterparties may be professional traders. Casual users can face tougher competition than they expect.
6. Higher age requirement: Novig requires users to be 21 or older. Kalshi accepts users from 18, which matters for younger adults.

Situations When Kalshi is Better Than Novig

1. Trading economic data releases: If you want exposure to CPI, jobs reports or Fed rate decisions, Kalshi is the only choice of the two. Novig does not list macro markets.
2. Election and political seasons: The 2026 midterms and other political events are tradable on Kalshi. Novig has no political contracts.
3. Hedging real-world risk: A farmer worried about rainfall or a business exposed to rate changes can offset that risk on Kalshi. This use case falls outside Novig’s sports focus.
4. Placing large orders: High-volume traders benefit from Kalshi’s deeper order books. Big tickets are easier to fill without slippage.
5. Living in Arizona, Michigan or Nevada: Novig is not available in these states. Kalshi gives residents there a regulated alternative, subject to local legal developments.
6. Keeping everything in a brokerage account: Users who already trade on Robinhood or Webull can reach Kalshi markets from there. That keeps prediction trades beside stocks and other assets.
7. Diversifying across topics: Traders who like to spread positions across sports, crypto, weather and culture get it all on one platform. Novig would cover only part of that portfolio.

Situations When Novig is Better Than Kalshi

1. High-frequency sports trading: Traders who place many game-day positions will feel the savings from zero retail commission. Over a season, avoided fees can be significant.
2. Betting-style experience without the house: Fans who like sportsbook apps but dislike built-in vig get a familiar flow with peer-to-peer pricing. Novig sits closest to that middle ground.
3. Single-sport or single-team focus: A dedicated NFL or MLB fan does not need weather or inflation markets. Novig keeps the screen centered on games that matter to them.
4. Comparing prices across venues: Sharp traders often shop lines across exchanges. Novig’s no-fee pricing can offer a better net price on the same outcome.
5. Following team-linked promotions: Fans of partner teams, such as the New York Mets, may see branded experiences and offers. Kalshi lacks equivalent team-specific ties.
6. Starting small with sports: Beginners who only care about sports may find Novig’s narrower menu less overwhelming. The learning curve is shorter.

Kalshi vs Novig Summary

Kalshi and Novig both give U.S. traders a federally regulated way to trade on real-world outcomes. Their paths to that point, and their goals, are very different.

Kalshi is the scaled, diversified exchange. It suits traders who want macro, political, cultural and sports markets in one place, with the deepest liquidity in the sector.

Novig is the focused sports specialist. It suits fans who trade games often and want to keep more of every winning position.

The right choice comes down to what you trade and how often. Many active users may end up holding accounts on both.

FAQs

Are profits from Kalshi or Novig taxable?

In the United States, gains from trading event contracts are generally treated as taxable income, and platforms may issue tax forms such as a 1099 to qualifying users. How those gains are classified can depend on your situation and on evolving IRS guidance for event contracts. Keep records of every deposit, trade and withdrawal, and speak with a tax professional before filing, because neither platform’s documents replace personal tax advice.

Are customer funds protected on these platforms?

As CFTC-regulated exchanges, both platforms are expected to keep customer funds segregated from company operating money. This is a different protection from FDIC insurance on a bank deposit or SIPC coverage at a stock broker. Before depositing a large sum, read each platform’s disclosures on custody partners and what happens to balances if the company runs into trouble.

Can people outside the United States use Kalshi or Novig?

Both platforms are built for U.S. residents and verify identity and location at signup. Kalshi has explored some international access over time, but availability outside the U.S. is limited and changes often. Novig is focused on the U.S. market, so anyone abroad should check each platform’s current eligibility rules rather than assume access.

What happens if a game is postponed or canceled?

Each contract has written rules that explain how it settles in unusual cases, such as a postponement, a suspended match or a canceled event. Depending on those terms, a market may settle at a set value, stay open until a rescheduled date, or be voided with funds returned. It is worth opening the rules tab on any contract before trading, especially for weather-sensitive sports like baseball and golf.

Can I lose more than I put into a trade?

For standard binary contracts on either platform, the most you can lose is what you paid for the position. A contract bought at 40 cents can fall to zero, but it cannot go below that. Some newer or leveraged products may carry different risks, so confirm how any non-standard product works before using it.

Does Novig still use sweepstakes coins?

Novig ran a sweepstakes model with Novig Coins and Novig Cash before it became a federally regulated exchange. With its CFTC designation and national launch in 2026, its main product is now a regulated prediction market traded with real money. Some legacy promotional features may still appear in the app or in sign-up offers, so check the current terms to see what a promotion actually provides.

Do Kalshi and Novig offer sign-up bonuses?

Both platforms have run promotions for new users, such as small credits after a first deposit or trade, and partner sites often advertise referral codes. These offers change frequently and usually come with conditions like minimum deposits or trading requirements. Read the fine print before signing up, and avoid choosing a platform on bonus value alone.

How fast do winnings become available to withdraw?

Most sports markets settle soon after the official result is confirmed, and the payout lands in your platform balance. Moving that money to a bank then depends on the withdrawal method, with bank transfers often taking one to several business days. Identity checks or first-time withdrawal reviews can add time, so complete verification early rather than waiting until you need the funds.

Alternative Meta Descriptions (not part of the article)

Kalshi vs Novig breaks down how a broad event exchange stacks up against a no vig sports market across costs, coverage, safety and the best fit for each trader.

Kalshi vs Novig weighs the pros, cons, features and ideal use cases of two CFTC regulated prediction markets to help sports fans and macro traders choose well.

Kalshi vs Novig shows where the scaled multi category exchange beats the commission free sports specialist and where Novig gets ahead for frequent game traders.

Kalshi vs Novig sets fees, liquidity, state availability and market choice side by side and names a clear winner for traders picking a regulated prediction app.